+- Dylan LeClair -- 607d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Have seen lots of NOSTR posts today on X. Gaining steam following the Telegram | | news by the looks of it. | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Have seen lots of NOSTR posts today on X. Gaining steam following the Telegram news by the looks of it.
npub1pyp9fqq60689ppds9ec3vghsm7s6s4grfya0y342g2hs3a0y6t0segc0qq
dylan@b.tc
I'm Dylan. I like math, markets, technology, and bitcoin.
+- Dylan LeClair -- 730d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | "And then they fight you..." | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+"And then they fight you..."
+- Dylan LeClair -- 828d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Value of all #bitcoin at the price they last moved. $BTC | | https://m.primal.net/HYXL.mov | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Value of all #bitcoin at the price they last moved. $BTC https://m.primal.net/HYXL.mov
+- Dylan LeClair -- 842d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Bitcoin Accelerationism. | | | | Bicoin Accelerationism embodies all that Effective Accelerationism (e/acc) | | represents, yet it posits that Bitcoin is crucial in ushering in this future. | | Let’s explore: | | | | First, let’s break down what e/acc stands for, and why bitcoin is inevitably | | intertwined in this technological movement. | | | | Effective Accelerationism posits that the universe inherently aims to optimize | | itself, constantly expanding and evolving. This expansion is seen as an | | unstoppable force, with the future always building upon and surpassing the | | present, and the main driver of this is ‘techno-capital’. Said more simply, | | ‘techno-capital’ is the force which will change/fix the world. | | | | Now, let’s turn to bitcoin: | | | | Similar to AI, bitcoin mining faces never ending scrutiny regarding its | | “energy use”. In reality, mining serves as a pivotal tool for energy grid | | load-balancing and waste energy mitigation. It's one of the only consumers of | | energy that can power off on a moments notice entirely subject to market | | demand. | | | | By empowering location agnostic energy monetization while enforcing ever | | increasing efficiency through the difficulty adjustment, bitcoin mining | | doesn't waste energy, but rather consumes energy waste. With the brutal | | reality of continuously rising network hash rate subsequently increasing | | mining difficulty, inefficient operators are driven out via market forces, | | while the increased difficulty simultaneously reinforces the asset’s supply | | inelasticity and programmatically increasing marginal cost of production. | | | | The significance? There is now a global opportunity cost for energy waste that | | exists anywhere found by satellite signal, thereby directly incentivizing and | | quantifying the chase of Moore's Law AND the ascent of the Kardashev scale. | | | | Bitcoin adheres to e/acc principles, and metaphorically aligns with the | | natural order and thermodynamic laws, by adeptly transforming forms of energy | | into an immutable ledger of subjective value. | | | | Its 21,000,000 capped supply mirrors the finite energy in closed systems, a | | nod to the conservation law. Bitcoin mining, which channels raw energy into | | computation, goes to securing and extending property rights to $800b of | | pseudonymous global wealth. The process of elegantly converting energy in any | | form into an immutable ledger of absolute monetary scarcity brings about order | | from entropy. | | | | Do not shy away from energy production nor energy consumption. Bitcoin's Proof | | of Work is not a weakness, but an absolute source of strength. Lean in. | | | | As a store of value, bitcoin epitomizes a free market for capital, underpinned | | by the energy securing it, SHA-256 cryptography, and a global consensus of | | distributed nodes, each user acting in their own self-interest. The key | | principle is that value is not derived by decree, but rather subjectively by | | self preserving individuals through economic incentives. | | | | As a unit of account, bitcoin is the ruler against which the vast | | technological gains of past and future decades will be quantified and measured | | against most accurately, given its attributes and free market emergence. | | | | In contrast, political currency, issued by increasingly corrupted | | institutions, will continue to devalue against everything we hold dear; | | fundamentally incompatible with a future where AI brings about abundance | | through the reduction in the cost of everyday services. | | | | This contrast between two opposing forces has never been more evident, with | | tech advances accelerating by day while the issuance of additional political | | currency aims to offset said deflationary gains to keep an evermore fragile | | and faltering system of debt and IOUs from collapsing under its own weight. | | | | As censorship-resistant money, bitcoin is pivotal for a future where | | censorship and surveillance by the state and/or techno-monopolies are more | | powerful and potentially oppressive than ever. | | | | As a bearer asset, bitcoin stands out as one of the few possessions that can | | be truly owned in a digital native world riddled with third party custodians | | and counterparties. Possession can be custodied literally in one's mind, not | | as the liability of a captured and corrupted institution operating under the | | long-reach of the state. | | | | Lastly, it is an inevitable reality that all monetary mediums compete in | | perpetuity, and the Darwinian process of a free market monetary medium | | monetizing from scratch, not by decree but by free market forces, has only | | occurred successfully a rare few times in human history, and never with the | | speed or global scale currently underway. | | | | Bitcoin Accelerationism is an acknowledgment of this all; the growing | | surveillance apparatus of the state, the attempt to restrict and reduce global | | energy production/consumption, and the precarious position of the global | | political currency experiment that threatens to undermine the past and present | | gains brought about by technological innovation. In e/acc terms, bitcoin is | | THE capital in ‘techno-capital’. | | | | In a world where the very medium in which we store our time, labor, and value | | is led by individuals more interested in looting the coffers than in the | | long-term health or vitality of our society, it’s time to lean in. | | | | Bitcoin Accelerationism is about embracing this reality. No force on earth can | | stop an idea whose time has come. | | | | We will not apologize, reconsider, slow down, or reverse course. Instead, | | | | ACCELERATE. | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Bitcoin Accelerationism. Bicoin Accelerationism embodies all that Effective Accelerationism (e/acc) represents, yet it posits that Bitcoin is crucial in ushering in this future. Let’s explore: First, let’s break down what e/acc stands for, and why bitcoin is inevitably intertwined in this technological movement. Effective Accelerationism posits that the universe inherently aims to optimize itself, constantly expanding and evolving. This expansion is seen as an unstoppable force, with the future always building upon and surpassing the present, and the main driver of this is ‘techno-capital’. Said more simply, ‘techno-capital’ is the force which will change/fix the world. Now, let’s turn to bitcoin: Similar to AI, bitcoin mining faces never ending scrutiny regarding its “energy use”. In reality, mining serves as a pivotal tool for energy grid load-balancing and waste energy mitigation. It's one of the only consumers of energy that can power off on a moments notice entirely subject to market demand. By empowering location agnostic energy monetization while enforcing ever increasing efficiency through the difficulty adjustment, bitcoin mining doesn't waste energy, but rather consumes energy waste. With the brutal reality of continuously rising network hash rate subsequently increasing mining difficulty, inefficient operators are driven out via market forces, while the increased difficulty simultaneously reinforces the asset’s supply inelasticity and programmatically increasing marginal cost of production. The significance? There is now a global opportunity cost for energy waste that exists anywhere found by satellite signal, thereby directly incentivizing and quantifying the chase of Moore's Law AND the ascent of the Kardashev scale. Bitcoin adheres to e/acc principles, and metaphorically aligns with the natural order and thermodynamic laws, by adeptly transforming forms of energy into an immutable ledger of subjective value. Its 21,000,000 capped supply mirrors the finite energy in closed systems, a nod to the conservation law. Bitcoin mining, which channels raw energy into computation, goes to securing and extending property rights to $800b of pseudonymous global wealth. The process of elegantly converting energy in any form into an immutable ledger of absolute monetary scarcity brings about order from entropy. Do not shy away from energy production nor energy consumption. Bitcoin's Proof of Work is not a weakness, but an absolute source of strength. Lean in. As a store of value, bitcoin epitomizes a free market for capital, underpinned by the energy securing it, SHA-256 cryptography, and a global consensus of distributed nodes, each user acting in their own self-interest. The key principle is that value is not derived by decree, but rather subjectively by self preserving individuals through economic incentives. As a unit of account, bitcoin is the ruler against which the vast technological gains of past and future decades will be quantified and measured against most accurately, given its attributes and free market emergence. In contrast, political currency, issued by increasingly corrupted institutions, will continue to devalue against everything we hold dear; fundamentally incompatible with a future where AI brings about abundance through the reduction in the cost of everyday services. This contrast between two opposing forces has never been more evident, with tech advances accelerating by day while the issuance of additional political currency aims to offset said deflationary gains to keep an evermore fragile and faltering system of debt and IOUs from collapsing under its own weight. As censorship-resistant money, bitcoin is pivotal for a future where censorship and surveillance by the state and/or techno-monopolies are more powerful and potentially oppressive than ever. As a bearer asset, bitcoin stands out as one of the few possessions that can be truly owned in a digital native world riddled with third party custodians and counterparties. Possession can be custodied literally in one's mind, not as the liability of a captured and corrupted institution operating under the long-reach of the state. Lastly, it is an inevitable reality that all monetary mediums compete in perpetuity, and the Darwinian process of a free market monetary medium monetizing from scratch, not by decree but by free market forces, has only occurred successfully a rare few times in human history, and never with the speed or global scale currently underway. Bitcoin Accelerationism is an acknowledgment of this all; the growing surveillance apparatus of the state, the attempt to restrict and reduce global energy production/consumption, and the precarious position of the global political currency experiment that threatens to undermine the past and present gains brought about by technological innovation. In e/acc terms, bitcoin is THE capital in ‘techno-capital’. In a world where the very medium in which we store our time, labor, and value is led by individuals more interested in looting the coffers than in the long-term health or vitality of our society, it’s time to lean in. Bitcoin Accelerationism is about embracing this reality. No force on earth can stop an idea whose time has come. We will not apologize, reconsider, slow down, or reverse course. Instead, ACCELERATE.
+- Dylan LeClair -- 844d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Okay? 😂 | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Okay? 😂
+- Dylan LeClair -- 844d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Joined CNBC last night for a few minutes to talk #bitcoin | | https://m.primal.net/HWSb.mov | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Joined CNBC last night for a few minutes to talk #bitcoin https://m.primal.net/HWSb.mov
+- Dylan LeClair -- 874d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Daily Dollar Cost Averaging from 1/1/2020: | | | | #Bitcoin : +106% | | Nasdaq: +28% | | S&P 500: +18% | | Gold: +16% | | U.S. Treasury Bonds: -20% | | https://m.primal.net/HSRr.jpg | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Daily Dollar Cost Averaging from 1/1/2020: #Bitcoin : +106% Nasdaq: +28% S&P 500: +18% Gold: +16% U.S. Treasury Bonds: -20% https://m.primal.net/HSRr.jpg
+- Dylan LeClair -- 877d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Before MicroStrategy had announced its bitcoin strategy. | | | | Now who’s ready for the FASB crypto accounting rule change. Corporates | | arriving in 2024. | | https://m.primal.net/HRqJ.jpg | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Before MicroStrategy had announced its bitcoin strategy. Now who’s ready for the FASB crypto accounting rule change. Corporates arriving in 2024. https://m.primal.net/HRqJ.jpg
+- Dylan LeClair -- 877d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Talk of ETF approval misses the forest for the trees. It's not just about | | immediate reactions or flows | | | | It's about the recognition of $BTC as an institutional asset. Pensions, | | endowments, insurance investment portfolios, etc., will soon be entering the | | arena with passive buy-side flows for the long term. | | | | In December 2020, Mass Mutual invested $100m into bitcoin. | | https://t.co/xdMyT7Dxxi | | | | MASSIVE.... except not really. Mass Mutual manage $235b in assets, with | | long-dated fiat liabilities. https://tinyurl.com/yz3b4hpn | | | | $100m of $BTC is a ~0.05% allocation... | | | | Large institutional investors don't purchase something to flip it the next | | month. They are constructing portfolios for multiple decades. | | | | A 0.05% allocation is just the start. There are many more many more Mass | | Mutuals out there, and all of these allocators are staring at their bond | | portfolio which is -50% from ATHs, questioning previous assumptions they held. | | | | The endorsement by the likes of Larry Fink isn't a sign that Larry is suddenly | | a bitcoin bull, it's a sign that clients are knocking on BlackRock's door, | | asking for a vehicle to gain exposure. | | | | The narrative violations are strong. Passive accumulation starting from the | | $69k ATH has you +45% right now on your bitcoin position. The same passive | | allocation into long bonds has you -12%. | | | | "But the volatility!" Again, it's a misunderstanding of time horizon. A ~1% | | allocation to an asset that they don't plan to liquidate for years/decades, | | with an extremely strong sharpe ratio, is within their risk profile. If you | | want proof, just look at the rest of their portfolio... | | | | - No, the orange coin is not going away. | | - No, it did not die when FTX collapsed. | | - Yes, supply is more tightly held than ever before. | | - Yes, perpetual credit expansion of the fiat monetary system is an ongoing | | reality. | | - No, there is no sense of fiscal austerity present ANYWHERE. | | - Yes, this illiquidity means marginal flows into the market sends the price | | higher, which is why all of these institutions will start with a tiny ~0.05% | | stake, while continuing to passively allocate steadily for the long-term. | | | | Reinforcing this all is the shift in narrative and negative bias around | | 'energy usage' and mining, evidenced by new academic papers on mining as a | | tool for balancing the grid and monetizing waste energy: | | | | - Bitcoin could support renewable energy development, Cornell Engineering, | | https://t.co/EZopJJAM2i | | | | - Leveraging Bitcoin Miners as Flexible Load Resources for Power System | | Stability and Efficiency, Co-authored by former ERCOT CEO, | | https://t.co/PEpGE65la1 | | | | - From Mining to Mitigation: How Bitcoin Can Support Renewable Energy | | Development and Climate Action, ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering, | | https://www.resistance.money/research/mining_to_mitigation.pdf | | | | The landscape and profile of the asset has shifted. It's not about the ETF, | | it's about the reason WHY the ETF is coming. Institutional exposure has been | | given a green light. It won't happen all at once, but understand the shift | | that is underway. | | | | Bitcoin has been passively accumulated by individuals and retail for sometime | | now, while institutions mostly watched the madness from the sideline. This is | | changing. | | | | Welcome. | | https://m.primal.net/HRqB.jpg | | https://m.primal.net/HRqC.jpg | | https://m.primal.net/HRqD.jpg | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Talk of ETF approval misses the forest for the trees. It's not just about immediate reactions or flows It's about the recognition of $BTC as an institutional asset. Pensions, endowments, insurance investment portfolios, etc., will soon be entering the arena with passive buy-side flows for the long term. In December 2020, Mass Mutual invested $100m into bitcoin. https://t.co/xdMyT7Dxxi MASSIVE.... except not really. Mass Mutual manage $235b in assets, with long-dated fiat liabilities. https://tinyurl.com/yz3b4hpn $100m of $BTC is a ~0.05% allocation... Large institutional investors don't purchase something to flip it the next month. They are constructing portfolios for multiple decades. A 0.05% allocation is just the start. There are many more many more Mass Mutuals out there, and all of these allocators are staring at their bond portfolio which is -50% from ATHs, questioning previous assumptions they held. The endorsement by the likes of Larry Fink isn't a sign that Larry is suddenly a bitcoin bull, it's a sign that clients are knocking on BlackRock's door, asking for a vehicle to gain exposure. The narrative violations are strong. Passive accumulation starting from the $69k ATH has you +45% right now on your bitcoin position. The same passive allocation into long bonds has you -12%. "But the volatility!" Again, it's a misunderstanding of time horizon. A ~1% allocation to an asset that they don't plan to liquidate for years/decades, with an extremely strong sharpe ratio, is within their risk profile. If you want proof, just look at the rest of their portfolio... - No, the orange coin is not going away. - No, it did not die when FTX collapsed. - Yes, supply is more tightly held than ever before. - Yes, perpetual credit expansion of the fiat monetary system is an ongoing reality. - No, there is no sense of fiscal austerity present ANYWHERE. - Yes, this illiquidity means marginal flows into the market sends the price higher, which is why all of these institutions will start with a tiny ~0.05% stake, while continuing to passively allocate steadily for the long-term. Reinforcing this all is the shift in narrative and negative bias around 'energy usage' and mining, evidenced by new academic papers on mining as a tool for balancing the grid and monetizing waste energy: - Bitcoin could support renewable energy development, Cornell Engineering, https://t.co/EZopJJAM2i - Leveraging Bitcoin Miners as Flexible Load Resources for Power System Stability and Efficiency, Co-authored by former ERCOT CEO, https://t.co/PEpGE65la1 - From Mining to Mitigation: How Bitcoin Can Support Renewable Energy Development and Climate Action, ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering, https://www.resistance.money/research/mining_to_mitigation.pdf The landscape and profile of the asset has shifted. It's not about the ETF, it's about the reason WHY the ETF is coming. Institutional exposure has been given a green light. It won't happen all at once, but understand the shift that is underway. Bitcoin has been passively accumulated by individuals and retail for sometime now, while institutions mostly watched the madness from the sideline. This is changing. Welcome. https://m.primal.net/HRqB.jpg https://m.primal.net/HRqC.jpg https://m.primal.net/HRqD.jpg
+- Dylan LeClair -- 877d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | The new Primal iOS app is super slick. Well done. | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+The new Primal iOS app is super slick. Well done.
+- Dylan LeClair -- 887d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | https://m.primal.net/HQul.png | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+https://m.primal.net/HQul.png
+- Dylan LeClair -- 898d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | #Bitcoin #BitVM https://m.primal.net/HPoo.png https://m.primal.net/HPor.jpg | | https://m.primal.net/HPoq.png https://m.primal.net/HPot.png | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+#Bitcoin #BitVM https://m.primal.net/HPoo.png https://m.primal.net/HPor.jpg https://m.primal.net/HPoq.png https://m.primal.net/HPot.png
+- Dylan LeClair -- 899d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | good morning | | nostr:npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx | | | | https://m.primal.net/HPju.jpg | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+good morning nostr:npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx https://m.primal.net/HPju.jpg
+- Dylan LeClair -- 900d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | ACCELERATE https://m.primal.net/HPgj.png | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+ACCELERATE https://m.primal.net/HPgj.png
+- Dylan LeClair -- 900d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | to be honest most of it is over my head too! | | | | some real gigabrain stuff those guys are working on | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+to be honest most of it is over my head too! some real gigabrain stuff those guys are working on
+- Dylan LeClair -- 900d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Thanks for sharing, and roger that! | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Thanks for sharing, and roger that!
+- Dylan LeClair -- 900d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Thoroughly enjoyed joining | | nostr:npub1s5yq6wadwrxde4lhfs56gn64hwzuhnfa6r9mj476r5s4hkunzgzqrs6q7z on his | | podcast once again. | | | | We talked about AI, bleeding fixed income, the $BTC market, paper gold vs BTC | | derivatives, implications of a potential ETF, BitVM, and other exciting | | developments in the #bitcoin space. | | | | Link: | | https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/dylan-leclair-bitcoin | | -market-overview/ | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Thoroughly enjoyed joining nostr:npub1s5yq6wadwrxde4lhfs56gn64hwzuhnfa6r9mj476r5s4hkunzgzqrs6q7z on his podcast once again. We talked about AI, bleeding fixed income, the $BTC market, paper gold vs BTC derivatives, implications of a potential ETF, BitVM, and other exciting developments in the #bitcoin space. Link: https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/dylan-leclair-bitcoin-market-overview/
+- Dylan LeClair -- 930d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Have fun becoming poor https://m.primal.net/HNEq.png | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Have fun becoming poor https://m.primal.net/HNEq.png
+- Dylan LeClair -- 955d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Yeah I just swapped USDT to USDC because I can't redeem at Tether, let's count | | the million ERC20 tokens swapped on each side as $2m in settlement volume... | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Yeah I just swapped USDT to USDC because I can't redeem at Tether, let's count the million ERC20 tokens swapped on each side as $2m in settlement volume...
+- Dylan LeClair -- 955d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Comparing stablecoins volumes to Visa/Mastercard payment volumes? Yeah, I | | traded Tether for ShitcoinInuCoin on Uniswap, chalk it up as an economic | | transfer. | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Comparing stablecoins volumes to Visa/Mastercard payment volumes? Yeah, I traded Tether for ShitcoinInuCoin on Uniswap, chalk it up as an economic transfer.
+- Dylan LeClair -- 957d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | You'll often see charts or visuals illustrating the depreciation of the $USD | | over time, normalized to $1.00, of which I occasionally share myself. | | | | However, there's an important caveat: these visuals rarely account for | | short-term yields. Displayed below is the purchasing power of $1, adjusting | | for annual CPI inflation (in red) versus the purchasing power of $1 accounting | | for 1-year Treasury yields less annual CPI inflation (in blue), starting from | | 1962 | | | | Notice anything? | | | | The purchasing power of $1 from 1962 to the present equates to $1.85 when | | accounting for 1-year Treasury yields and inflation. Meanwhile, adjusting for | | inflation alone leaves you with just $0.10 of purchasing power. | | | | Quite the massive difference. | | | | However, there's more nuance to consider: | | | | 1) Let's separate the data into distinct eras, | | | | From 1962 to start of 2009: | | - Average annual inflation: 4.40% | | - Average 1y yields: 6.22% | | - Average difference: +1.82% | | Real gains in purchasing power. | | | | From 2009 to Present: | | - Average annual inflation: 2.34% | | - Average 1y yields: 1.00% | | - Average difference: -1.34% | | Real losses in purchasing power. | | | | 2) The data doesn't include the 1940s where financial repression massively | | devalued the USD to erode real debt burdens (the data I quickly threw together | | only went back to 1962) in the post war period. | | | | 3) Why 2009 for the change in eras? What has changed? If the U.S. can just pay | | a nominally higher yield than the inflation rate in perpetuity, are the fiat | | doomers really just delusional? | | | | In my view: | | | | - Positive real yields can be sustained with a clean balance sheet. It's | | feasible for the government to pay creditors a positive real interest rate | | when real debt burdens are low, demographics are booming, and the global GDP | | is exploding as the world industrializes. | | | | - With Debt to GDP meaningfully > 100% and other tailwinds reversing, this is | | no longer the case. Post GFC and the introduction of ZIRP + QE to facilitate | | "growth", has the positive real yield era behind us, at least until real debt | | burdens have been eroded - which will take either explosive real growth, or a | | steady dose of inflation above yields, debasing creditors in the process. | | | | The Bottom Line: The reality is that the average/median American individual or | | family often doesn't have much disposable income to capture such yields. The | | ones that do, benefit; and the ones that don't are the ones that pay for it. | | | | When you look at charts showing record wealth disparity, or are wondering why | | the political landscape is more polarized than ever, keep this chart in mind. | | | | Fiat inflation didn't bother the investor class from for forty years as yields | | outpaced inflation. Currency devaluation wasn't felt in the slightest by this | | cohort, they didn't just escape the devaluation, but outpaced it | | significantly. | | | | Now, with Debt to GDP levels domestically and globally near record levels, | | expect the post 2009 dynamic to continue into the future on a longer time | | frame. Don't let the current tightening cycle fool you as to what must occur. | | | | Inflation > Yields, over a sustained period of time, is the only way global | | governments can mask their insolvency. | | | | Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk. https://m.primal.net/HLGc.png | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+You'll often see charts or visuals illustrating the depreciation of the $USD over time, normalized to $1.00, of which I occasionally share myself. However, there's an important caveat: these visuals rarely account for short-term yields. Displayed below is the purchasing power of $1, adjusting for annual CPI inflation (in red) versus the purchasing power of $1 accounting for 1-year Treasury yields less annual CPI inflation (in blue), starting from 1962 Notice anything? The purchasing power of $1 from 1962 to the present equates to $1.85 when accounting for 1-year Treasury yields and inflation. Meanwhile, adjusting for inflation alone leaves you with just $0.10 of purchasing power. Quite the massive difference. However, there's more nuance to consider: 1) Let's separate the data into distinct eras, From 1962 to start of 2009: - Average annual inflation: 4.40% - Average 1y yields: 6.22% - Average difference: +1.82% Real gains in purchasing power. From 2009 to Present: - Average annual inflation: 2.34% - Average 1y yields: 1.00% - Average difference: -1.34% Real losses in purchasing power. 2) The data doesn't include the 1940s where financial repression massively devalued the USD to erode real debt burdens (the data I quickly threw together only went back to 1962) in the post war period. 3) Why 2009 for the change in eras? What has changed? If the U.S. can just pay a nominally higher yield than the inflation rate in perpetuity, are the fiat doomers really just delusional? In my view: - Positive real yields can be sustained with a clean balance sheet. It's feasible for the government to pay creditors a positive real interest rate when real debt burdens are low, demographics are booming, and the global GDP is exploding as the world industrializes. - With Debt to GDP meaningfully > 100% and other tailwinds reversing, this is no longer the case. Post GFC and the introduction of ZIRP + QE to facilitate "growth", has the positive real yield era behind us, at least until real debt burdens have been eroded - which will take either explosive real growth, or a steady dose of inflation above yields, debasing creditors in the process. The Bottom Line: The reality is that the average/median American individual or family often doesn't have much disposable income to capture such yields. The ones that do, benefit; and the ones that don't are the ones that pay for it. When you look at charts showing record wealth disparity, or are wondering why the political landscape is more polarized than ever, keep this chart in mind. Fiat inflation didn't bother the investor class from for forty years as yields outpaced inflation. Currency devaluation wasn't felt in the slightest by this cohort, they didn't just escape the devaluation, but outpaced it significantly. Now, with Debt to GDP levels domestically and globally near record levels, expect the post 2009 dynamic to continue into the future on a longer time frame. Don't let the current tightening cycle fool you as to what must occur. Inflation > Yields, over a sustained period of time, is the only way global governments can mask their insolvency. Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk. https://m.primal.net/HLGc.png
+- Dylan LeClair -- 962d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | I said the the free market will solve the "security budget" and crypto twitter | | lost its collective mind. Amazing. | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+I said the the free market will solve the "security budget" and crypto twitter lost its collective mind. Amazing.
+- Dylan LeClair -- 962d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | I said the the free market will solve the "security budget" and crypto twitter | | lost its collective mind. Amazing. | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+I said the the free market will solve the "security budget" and crypto twitter lost its collective mind. Amazing.
+- Dylan LeClair -- 964d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Maybe this isn't about Elon but the 'non-profit' organizations built only to | | censor and mold the opinion of the masses to their intended world view | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Maybe this isn't about Elon but the 'non-profit' organizations built only to censor and mold the opinion of the masses to their intended world view
+- Dylan LeClair -- 964d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | It's unaffiliated groups threatening to use their influence to cut off | | sponsors from Twitter if XYZ doesn't get censored/banned, it's not the desire | | of Elon. | | | | Obviously he obliges, because if he doesn't he loses billions. | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+It's unaffiliated groups threatening to use their influence to cut off sponsors from Twitter if XYZ doesn't get censored/banned, it's not the desire of Elon. Obviously he obliges, because if he doesn't he loses billions.
+- Dylan LeClair -- 964d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Unmask the backers of the social media censorship regime and you find | | racketeering under the guise of hate speech. | | | | It's not mass incompetence, far from it, it's malice. | | | | Now expand this to all mainstream media, higher education, politics, etc. and | | you'll have clown world figured out. | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Unmask the backers of the social media censorship regime and you find racketeering under the guise of hate speech. It's not mass incompetence, far from it, it's malice. Now expand this to all mainstream media, higher education, politics, etc. and you'll have clown world figured out.
+- Dylan LeClair -- 964d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | As a percent of circulating supply, #bitcoin moved in the last 30 days is at | | an all time low of 5.4% (94.6% dormant), meanwhile spot volumes are at levels | | not seen since 2019. | | | | Saying this market is thin currently is an understatement - remember | | inelasticity can cut both ways... https://m.primal.net/HKgV.png | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+As a percent of circulating supply, #bitcoin moved in the last 30 days is at an all time low of 5.4% (94.6% dormant), meanwhile spot volumes are at levels not seen since 2019. Saying this market is thin currently is an understatement - remember inelasticity can cut both ways... https://m.primal.net/HKgV.png
+- Dylan LeClair -- 970d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Going live with | | nostr:npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx in ~30 | | minutes at 2pm EST. https://www.youtube.com/@CitadelDispatch | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Going live with nostr:npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx in ~30 minutes at 2pm EST. https://www.youtube.com/@CitadelDispatch
+- Dylan LeClair -- 975d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | im game | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+im game
+- Dylan LeClair -- 975d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Pump the token you printed from thin air with only a billion of derivative | | open interest; create tens of billions of value. | | | | It's relatively easy too, you have proprietary info on the only liquid spot | | and derivatives market it trades on at the time. Futures collateralized with | | stablecoins and the token itself, pump it. | | | | +4,000% in one year. $100+ billion in market cap. Your share, a mirage worth | | nearly $50b, materializes a mere four years after the ICO. A treasure and a | | trap, you enable your users to collateralize against it. Encourage this, and | | of course encourage them to also keep buying, this thing won't simply just | | support itself. | | | | How do you capitalize? Well, first off, do NOT sell anything, that'd be too | | risky, as there are no natural buyers in size, you are the market. Instead, | | think of other ways to leverage your near immortal levels of newfound wealth, | | where you won't damage the exchange rate. Your own platform enables this, of | | course. | | | | Access to billions of dollars of fiat flows, an international banking network, | | and a stablecoin issued in your name—which you even manage to rehypothecate by | | the billion—gives you plenty of tools at your disposal. | | | | Your biggest competitor, who attempted to mirror your model, goes down in | | flames, their bluff called, with the world watching. A win at first, you | | shortly realize the move backfires. Regulators start circling, a precedent has | | been set. | | | | Fiat rails and banking relationships get cut. Your stablecoin is ordered to | | wind down, and jurisdiction by jurisdiction your platform is ordered to cease. | | Volatility and volumes dwindle, further thinning the air. | | | | Depleted of fiat, with most of your wealth tied to a 'Hotel California' asset | | that you can never sell hanging above multi-year support, you do and say | | anything to keep the confidence game alive.https://m.primal.net/HJqJ.png | | https://m.primal.net/HJqK.png https://m.primal.net/HJqL.png | | https://m.primal.net/HJqM.png | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Pump the token you printed from thin air with only a billion of derivative open interest; create tens of billions of value. It's relatively easy too, you have proprietary info on the only liquid spot and derivatives market it trades on at the time. Futures collateralized with stablecoins and the token itself, pump it. +4,000% in one year. $100+ billion in market cap. Your share, a mirage worth nearly $50b, materializes a mere four years after the ICO. A treasure and a trap, you enable your users to collateralize against it. Encourage this, and of course encourage them to also keep buying, this thing won't simply just support itself. How do you capitalize? Well, first off, do NOT sell anything, that'd be too risky, as there are no natural buyers in size, you are the market. Instead, think of other ways to leverage your near immortal levels of newfound wealth, where you won't damage the exchange rate. Your own platform enables this, of course. Access to billions of dollars of fiat flows, an international banking network, and a stablecoin issued in your name—which you even manage to rehypothecate by the billion—gives you plenty of tools at your disposal. Your biggest competitor, who attempted to mirror your model, goes down in flames, their bluff called, with the world watching. A win at first, you shortly realize the move backfires. Regulators start circling, a precedent has been set. Fiat rails and banking relationships get cut. Your stablecoin is ordered to wind down, and jurisdiction by jurisdiction your platform is ordered to cease. Volatility and volumes dwindle, further thinning the air. Depleted of fiat, with most of your wealth tied to a 'Hotel California' asset that you can never sell hanging above multi-year support, you do and say anything to keep the confidence game alive.https://m.primal.net/HJqJ.png https://m.primal.net/HJqK.png https://m.primal.net/HJqL.png https://m.primal.net/HJqM.png
No replies found in cached notes yet.
+- Dylan LeClair -- 828d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Value of all #bitcoin at the price they last moved. $BTC | | https://m.primal.net/HYXL.mov | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Value of all #bitcoin at the price they last moved. $BTC https://m.primal.net/HYXL.mov
+- Dylan LeClair -- 844d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Joined CNBC last night for a few minutes to talk #bitcoin | | https://m.primal.net/HWSb.mov | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Joined CNBC last night for a few minutes to talk #bitcoin https://m.primal.net/HWSb.mov
+- Dylan LeClair -- 874d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Daily Dollar Cost Averaging from 1/1/2020: | | | | #Bitcoin : +106% | | Nasdaq: +28% | | S&P 500: +18% | | Gold: +16% | | U.S. Treasury Bonds: -20% | | https://m.primal.net/HSRr.jpg | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Daily Dollar Cost Averaging from 1/1/2020: #Bitcoin : +106% Nasdaq: +28% S&P 500: +18% Gold: +16% U.S. Treasury Bonds: -20% https://m.primal.net/HSRr.jpg
+- Dylan LeClair -- 877d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Before MicroStrategy had announced its bitcoin strategy. | | | | Now who’s ready for the FASB crypto accounting rule change. Corporates | | arriving in 2024. | | https://m.primal.net/HRqJ.jpg | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Before MicroStrategy had announced its bitcoin strategy. Now who’s ready for the FASB crypto accounting rule change. Corporates arriving in 2024. https://m.primal.net/HRqJ.jpg
+- Dylan LeClair -- 877d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Talk of ETF approval misses the forest for the trees. It's not just about | | immediate reactions or flows | | | | It's about the recognition of $BTC as an institutional asset. Pensions, | | endowments, insurance investment portfolios, etc., will soon be entering the | | arena with passive buy-side flows for the long term. | | | | In December 2020, Mass Mutual invested $100m into bitcoin. | | https://t.co/xdMyT7Dxxi | | | | MASSIVE.... except not really. Mass Mutual manage $235b in assets, with | | long-dated fiat liabilities. https://tinyurl.com/yz3b4hpn | | | | $100m of $BTC is a ~0.05% allocation... | | | | Large institutional investors don't purchase something to flip it the next | | month. They are constructing portfolios for multiple decades. | | | | A 0.05% allocation is just the start. There are many more many more Mass | | Mutuals out there, and all of these allocators are staring at their bond | | portfolio which is -50% from ATHs, questioning previous assumptions they held. | | | | The endorsement by the likes of Larry Fink isn't a sign that Larry is suddenly | | a bitcoin bull, it's a sign that clients are knocking on BlackRock's door, | | asking for a vehicle to gain exposure. | | | | The narrative violations are strong. Passive accumulation starting from the | | $69k ATH has you +45% right now on your bitcoin position. The same passive | | allocation into long bonds has you -12%. | | | | "But the volatility!" Again, it's a misunderstanding of time horizon. A ~1% | | allocation to an asset that they don't plan to liquidate for years/decades, | | with an extremely strong sharpe ratio, is within their risk profile. If you | | want proof, just look at the rest of their portfolio... | | | | - No, the orange coin is not going away. | | - No, it did not die when FTX collapsed. | | - Yes, supply is more tightly held than ever before. | | - Yes, perpetual credit expansion of the fiat monetary system is an ongoing | | reality. | | - No, there is no sense of fiscal austerity present ANYWHERE. | | - Yes, this illiquidity means marginal flows into the market sends the price | | higher, which is why all of these institutions will start with a tiny ~0.05% | | stake, while continuing to passively allocate steadily for the long-term. | | | | Reinforcing this all is the shift in narrative and negative bias around | | 'energy usage' and mining, evidenced by new academic papers on mining as a | | tool for balancing the grid and monetizing waste energy: | | | | - Bitcoin could support renewable energy development, Cornell Engineering, | | https://t.co/EZopJJAM2i | | | | - Leveraging Bitcoin Miners as Flexible Load Resources for Power System | | Stability and Efficiency, Co-authored by former ERCOT CEO, | | https://t.co/PEpGE65la1 | | | | - From Mining to Mitigation: How Bitcoin Can Support Renewable Energy | | Development and Climate Action, ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering, | | https://www.resistance.money/research/mining_to_mitigation.pdf | | | | The landscape and profile of the asset has shifted. It's not about the ETF, | | it's about the reason WHY the ETF is coming. Institutional exposure has been | | given a green light. It won't happen all at once, but understand the shift | | that is underway. | | | | Bitcoin has been passively accumulated by individuals and retail for sometime | | now, while institutions mostly watched the madness from the sideline. This is | | changing. | | | | Welcome. | | https://m.primal.net/HRqB.jpg | | https://m.primal.net/HRqC.jpg | | https://m.primal.net/HRqD.jpg | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Talk of ETF approval misses the forest for the trees. It's not just about immediate reactions or flows It's about the recognition of $BTC as an institutional asset. Pensions, endowments, insurance investment portfolios, etc., will soon be entering the arena with passive buy-side flows for the long term. In December 2020, Mass Mutual invested $100m into bitcoin. https://t.co/xdMyT7Dxxi MASSIVE.... except not really. Mass Mutual manage $235b in assets, with long-dated fiat liabilities. https://tinyurl.com/yz3b4hpn $100m of $BTC is a ~0.05% allocation... Large institutional investors don't purchase something to flip it the next month. They are constructing portfolios for multiple decades. A 0.05% allocation is just the start. There are many more many more Mass Mutuals out there, and all of these allocators are staring at their bond portfolio which is -50% from ATHs, questioning previous assumptions they held. The endorsement by the likes of Larry Fink isn't a sign that Larry is suddenly a bitcoin bull, it's a sign that clients are knocking on BlackRock's door, asking for a vehicle to gain exposure. The narrative violations are strong. Passive accumulation starting from the $69k ATH has you +45% right now on your bitcoin position. The same passive allocation into long bonds has you -12%. "But the volatility!" Again, it's a misunderstanding of time horizon. A ~1% allocation to an asset that they don't plan to liquidate for years/decades, with an extremely strong sharpe ratio, is within their risk profile. If you want proof, just look at the rest of their portfolio... - No, the orange coin is not going away. - No, it did not die when FTX collapsed. - Yes, supply is more tightly held than ever before. - Yes, perpetual credit expansion of the fiat monetary system is an ongoing reality. - No, there is no sense of fiscal austerity present ANYWHERE. - Yes, this illiquidity means marginal flows into the market sends the price higher, which is why all of these institutions will start with a tiny ~0.05% stake, while continuing to passively allocate steadily for the long-term. Reinforcing this all is the shift in narrative and negative bias around 'energy usage' and mining, evidenced by new academic papers on mining as a tool for balancing the grid and monetizing waste energy: - Bitcoin could support renewable energy development, Cornell Engineering, https://t.co/EZopJJAM2i - Leveraging Bitcoin Miners as Flexible Load Resources for Power System Stability and Efficiency, Co-authored by former ERCOT CEO, https://t.co/PEpGE65la1 - From Mining to Mitigation: How Bitcoin Can Support Renewable Energy Development and Climate Action, ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering, https://www.resistance.money/research/mining_to_mitigation.pdf The landscape and profile of the asset has shifted. It's not about the ETF, it's about the reason WHY the ETF is coming. Institutional exposure has been given a green light. It won't happen all at once, but understand the shift that is underway. Bitcoin has been passively accumulated by individuals and retail for sometime now, while institutions mostly watched the madness from the sideline. This is changing. Welcome. https://m.primal.net/HRqB.jpg https://m.primal.net/HRqC.jpg https://m.primal.net/HRqD.jpg
+- Dylan LeClair -- 887d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | https://m.primal.net/HQul.png | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+https://m.primal.net/HQul.png
+- Dylan LeClair -- 898d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | #Bitcoin #BitVM https://m.primal.net/HPoo.png https://m.primal.net/HPor.jpg | | https://m.primal.net/HPoq.png https://m.primal.net/HPot.png | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+#Bitcoin #BitVM https://m.primal.net/HPoo.png https://m.primal.net/HPor.jpg https://m.primal.net/HPoq.png https://m.primal.net/HPot.png
+- Dylan LeClair -- 899d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | good morning | | nostr:npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx | | | | https://m.primal.net/HPju.jpg | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+good morning nostr:npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx https://m.primal.net/HPju.jpg
+- Dylan LeClair -- 900d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | ACCELERATE https://m.primal.net/HPgj.png | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+ACCELERATE https://m.primal.net/HPgj.png
+- Dylan LeClair -- 930d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Have fun becoming poor https://m.primal.net/HNEq.png | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Have fun becoming poor https://m.primal.net/HNEq.png
+- Dylan LeClair -- 957d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | You'll often see charts or visuals illustrating the depreciation of the $USD | | over time, normalized to $1.00, of which I occasionally share myself. | | | | However, there's an important caveat: these visuals rarely account for | | short-term yields. Displayed below is the purchasing power of $1, adjusting | | for annual CPI inflation (in red) versus the purchasing power of $1 accounting | | for 1-year Treasury yields less annual CPI inflation (in blue), starting from | | 1962 | | | | Notice anything? | | | | The purchasing power of $1 from 1962 to the present equates to $1.85 when | | accounting for 1-year Treasury yields and inflation. Meanwhile, adjusting for | | inflation alone leaves you with just $0.10 of purchasing power. | | | | Quite the massive difference. | | | | However, there's more nuance to consider: | | | | 1) Let's separate the data into distinct eras, | | | | From 1962 to start of 2009: | | - Average annual inflation: 4.40% | | - Average 1y yields: 6.22% | | - Average difference: +1.82% | | Real gains in purchasing power. | | | | From 2009 to Present: | | - Average annual inflation: 2.34% | | - Average 1y yields: 1.00% | | - Average difference: -1.34% | | Real losses in purchasing power. | | | | 2) The data doesn't include the 1940s where financial repression massively | | devalued the USD to erode real debt burdens (the data I quickly threw together | | only went back to 1962) in the post war period. | | | | 3) Why 2009 for the change in eras? What has changed? If the U.S. can just pay | | a nominally higher yield than the inflation rate in perpetuity, are the fiat | | doomers really just delusional? | | | | In my view: | | | | - Positive real yields can be sustained with a clean balance sheet. It's | | feasible for the government to pay creditors a positive real interest rate | | when real debt burdens are low, demographics are booming, and the global GDP | | is exploding as the world industrializes. | | | | - With Debt to GDP meaningfully > 100% and other tailwinds reversing, this is | | no longer the case. Post GFC and the introduction of ZIRP + QE to facilitate | | "growth", has the positive real yield era behind us, at least until real debt | | burdens have been eroded - which will take either explosive real growth, or a | | steady dose of inflation above yields, debasing creditors in the process. | | | | The Bottom Line: The reality is that the average/median American individual or | | family often doesn't have much disposable income to capture such yields. The | | ones that do, benefit; and the ones that don't are the ones that pay for it. | | | | When you look at charts showing record wealth disparity, or are wondering why | | the political landscape is more polarized than ever, keep this chart in mind. | | | | Fiat inflation didn't bother the investor class from for forty years as yields | | outpaced inflation. Currency devaluation wasn't felt in the slightest by this | | cohort, they didn't just escape the devaluation, but outpaced it | | significantly. | | | | Now, with Debt to GDP levels domestically and globally near record levels, | | expect the post 2009 dynamic to continue into the future on a longer time | | frame. Don't let the current tightening cycle fool you as to what must occur. | | | | Inflation > Yields, over a sustained period of time, is the only way global | | governments can mask their insolvency. | | | | Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk. https://m.primal.net/HLGc.png | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+You'll often see charts or visuals illustrating the depreciation of the $USD over time, normalized to $1.00, of which I occasionally share myself. However, there's an important caveat: these visuals rarely account for short-term yields. Displayed below is the purchasing power of $1, adjusting for annual CPI inflation (in red) versus the purchasing power of $1 accounting for 1-year Treasury yields less annual CPI inflation (in blue), starting from 1962 Notice anything? The purchasing power of $1 from 1962 to the present equates to $1.85 when accounting for 1-year Treasury yields and inflation. Meanwhile, adjusting for inflation alone leaves you with just $0.10 of purchasing power. Quite the massive difference. However, there's more nuance to consider: 1) Let's separate the data into distinct eras, From 1962 to start of 2009: - Average annual inflation: 4.40% - Average 1y yields: 6.22% - Average difference: +1.82% Real gains in purchasing power. From 2009 to Present: - Average annual inflation: 2.34% - Average 1y yields: 1.00% - Average difference: -1.34% Real losses in purchasing power. 2) The data doesn't include the 1940s where financial repression massively devalued the USD to erode real debt burdens (the data I quickly threw together only went back to 1962) in the post war period. 3) Why 2009 for the change in eras? What has changed? If the U.S. can just pay a nominally higher yield than the inflation rate in perpetuity, are the fiat doomers really just delusional? In my view: - Positive real yields can be sustained with a clean balance sheet. It's feasible for the government to pay creditors a positive real interest rate when real debt burdens are low, demographics are booming, and the global GDP is exploding as the world industrializes. - With Debt to GDP meaningfully > 100% and other tailwinds reversing, this is no longer the case. Post GFC and the introduction of ZIRP + QE to facilitate "growth", has the positive real yield era behind us, at least until real debt burdens have been eroded - which will take either explosive real growth, or a steady dose of inflation above yields, debasing creditors in the process. The Bottom Line: The reality is that the average/median American individual or family often doesn't have much disposable income to capture such yields. The ones that do, benefit; and the ones that don't are the ones that pay for it. When you look at charts showing record wealth disparity, or are wondering why the political landscape is more polarized than ever, keep this chart in mind. Fiat inflation didn't bother the investor class from for forty years as yields outpaced inflation. Currency devaluation wasn't felt in the slightest by this cohort, they didn't just escape the devaluation, but outpaced it significantly. Now, with Debt to GDP levels domestically and globally near record levels, expect the post 2009 dynamic to continue into the future on a longer time frame. Don't let the current tightening cycle fool you as to what must occur. Inflation > Yields, over a sustained period of time, is the only way global governments can mask their insolvency. Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk. https://m.primal.net/HLGc.png
+- Dylan LeClair -- 964d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | As a percent of circulating supply, #bitcoin moved in the last 30 days is at | | an all time low of 5.4% (94.6% dormant), meanwhile spot volumes are at levels | | not seen since 2019. | | | | Saying this market is thin currently is an understatement - remember | | inelasticity can cut both ways... https://m.primal.net/HKgV.png | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+As a percent of circulating supply, #bitcoin moved in the last 30 days is at an all time low of 5.4% (94.6% dormant), meanwhile spot volumes are at levels not seen since 2019. Saying this market is thin currently is an understatement - remember inelasticity can cut both ways... https://m.primal.net/HKgV.png
+- Dylan LeClair -- 970d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Going live with | | nostr:npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx in ~30 | | minutes at 2pm EST. https://www.youtube.com/@CitadelDispatch | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Going live with nostr:npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx in ~30 minutes at 2pm EST. https://www.youtube.com/@CitadelDispatch
+- Dylan LeClair -- 975d ---------------------------------------------------[...]+ | | | Pump the token you printed from thin air with only a billion of derivative | | open interest; create tens of billions of value. | | | | It's relatively easy too, you have proprietary info on the only liquid spot | | and derivatives market it trades on at the time. Futures collateralized with | | stablecoins and the token itself, pump it. | | | | +4,000% in one year. $100+ billion in market cap. Your share, a mirage worth | | nearly $50b, materializes a mere four years after the ICO. A treasure and a | | trap, you enable your users to collateralize against it. Encourage this, and | | of course encourage them to also keep buying, this thing won't simply just | | support itself. | | | | How do you capitalize? Well, first off, do NOT sell anything, that'd be too | | risky, as there are no natural buyers in size, you are the market. Instead, | | think of other ways to leverage your near immortal levels of newfound wealth, | | where you won't damage the exchange rate. Your own platform enables this, of | | course. | | | | Access to billions of dollars of fiat flows, an international banking network, | | and a stablecoin issued in your name—which you even manage to rehypothecate by | | the billion—gives you plenty of tools at your disposal. | | | | Your biggest competitor, who attempted to mirror your model, goes down in | | flames, their bluff called, with the world watching. A win at first, you | | shortly realize the move backfires. Regulators start circling, a precedent has | | been set. | | | | Fiat rails and banking relationships get cut. Your stablecoin is ordered to | | wind down, and jurisdiction by jurisdiction your platform is ordered to cease. | | Volatility and volumes dwindle, further thinning the air. | | | | Depleted of fiat, with most of your wealth tied to a 'Hotel California' asset | | that you can never sell hanging above multi-year support, you do and say | | anything to keep the confidence game alive.https://m.primal.net/HJqJ.png | | https://m.primal.net/HJqK.png https://m.primal.net/HJqL.png | | https://m.primal.net/HJqM.png | | | +-- reply ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---+Pump the token you printed from thin air with only a billion of derivative open interest; create tens of billions of value. It's relatively easy too, you have proprietary info on the only liquid spot and derivatives market it trades on at the time. Futures collateralized with stablecoins and the token itself, pump it. +4,000% in one year. $100+ billion in market cap. Your share, a mirage worth nearly $50b, materializes a mere four years after the ICO. A treasure and a trap, you enable your users to collateralize against it. Encourage this, and of course encourage them to also keep buying, this thing won't simply just support itself. How do you capitalize? Well, first off, do NOT sell anything, that'd be too risky, as there are no natural buyers in size, you are the market. Instead, think of other ways to leverage your near immortal levels of newfound wealth, where you won't damage the exchange rate. Your own platform enables this, of course. Access to billions of dollars of fiat flows, an international banking network, and a stablecoin issued in your name—which you even manage to rehypothecate by the billion—gives you plenty of tools at your disposal. Your biggest competitor, who attempted to mirror your model, goes down in flames, their bluff called, with the world watching. A win at first, you shortly realize the move backfires. Regulators start circling, a precedent has been set. Fiat rails and banking relationships get cut. Your stablecoin is ordered to wind down, and jurisdiction by jurisdiction your platform is ordered to cease. Volatility and volumes dwindle, further thinning the air. Depleted of fiat, with most of your wealth tied to a 'Hotel California' asset that you can never sell hanging above multi-year support, you do and say anything to keep the confidence game alive.https://m.primal.net/HJqJ.png https://m.primal.net/HJqK.png https://m.primal.net/HJqL.png https://m.primal.net/HJqM.png
Pubkeys from this user's latest cached kind 3 follow list.
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- 7489a8df2d3c 7489a8df…71bc
- 7e2d5f884495 7e2d5f88…9e94
- jack 82341f88…e6a2
- 83e818dfbecc 83e818df…964b
- 847999a98075 847999a9…9b0d
- Edward Snowden 84dee6e6…7240
- preston 85080d3b…1204
- Adam Curry 883fea4c…bc39
- 88a2c3b420b4 88a2c3b4…aa45
- 8f35e9115505 8f35e911…2f19
- 907a5a23635e 907a5a23…262e
- 92de68b21302 92de68b2…f56a
- 9e22bc4d823d 9e22bc4d…6e79
- a2353bc029fe a2353bc0…229d
- Michael Saylor a341f45f…7a98
- a4cb51f4618c a4cb51f4…f110
- a67e98faf32f a67e98fa…770e
- a6ca4c68be81 a6ca4c68…1409
- boston wine a8045573…a578
- aaaf526e9489 aaaf526e…e399
- abff2c289bea abff2c28…c22e
- ad46db12ee25 ad46db12…d207
- b25c1c3a910a b25c1c3a…c8ab
- b9003833fabf b9003833…2000
- b93049a6e254 b93049a6…9d30
- b9360cd808b2 b9360cd8…8d06
- Guy Swann b9e76546…23dc
- bad911bdd42d bad911bd…f1f2
- be1d89794bf9 be1d8979…9479
- be674b2cdad2 be674b2c…ece6
- c37e8e9cebb0 c37e8e9c…d574
- hodlonaut c49d52a5…ca15
- jack mallers c4eabae1…c4e0
- c831b5da8154 c831b5da…dd0d
- ca4f099b002d ca4f099b…ba8b
- cd6b2f16c7af cd6b2f16…cf57
- d30764354770 d3076435…8cf8
Cached pubkeys that follow this user, discovered from kind 3 events.
- StellarStoic💭 Old account 00000000…7e19
- Carlito 00000000…bcd7
- Nic₿ 🏴☠️ 00000000…b973
- Nicolas ₿ ⚡️ 🇦🇷🧉🤙💜 00000000…c287
- Cameri🐦🔥 00000000…d700
- dread 00000001…ed21
- Thorsten ⚡️ 0000000f…694f
- BladeRunner 0000006a…51be
- kepford 000002de…80a7
- ₿en Wehrman 0018b7ee…9564
- ⚡️Oz⚡️ 002582fb…56a1
- hugomofn 0062f507…e469
- OneEzra 0078d4cb…ade2
- samuel 008cca1f…a67b
- Ambigous 008e79da…07a1
- Highsselhoff 00a68fb3…0d0e
- Hans Karlsborn 00d64057…5106
- Tampered Tempestr ⚡ 0118cbee…6f86
- g 0143b2b0…ab13
- David Rassiner 014c0cf0…f5bd
- Filou 01d0bbf9…0d4c
- ₿i͎t͎c͎o͎i͎n͎ ✶ 01e4fc2a…248e
- nitesh 021d7ef7…ae02
- Mohamed GigaChad 027309d0…4234
- berean jones 02748827…3443
- Cincy 0294d19d…1a1a
- alana 02a022d4…5aad
- Nour 02a11d15…2ea9
- OldFashBTC 02ec4766…0153
- Lane 🦢 02f08baf…6270
- Notoshi⚡ 03742c20…aa5d
- sean 03b717ec…e463
- Nymmo 03b72b4f…9a8b
- Satsimalist 03bb7dc1…c8c5
- HODL SHOP ⚡️💜 03c57ee7…cdc0
- Erik Hersman 03fbf7d2…67f6
- Saiyasodharan 0418ca2d…85eb
- - 041b77c8…0949
- christo 04222fa1…9de5
- Plagal Cadence⚡🐦⬛ 0428959e…73e0
- Liviu 0444f37b…2db7
- thesimplekid 04918dfc…bbc5
- Ron Stoner 0497384b…84a4
- Plan_Marcus 051101cd…dfc0
- Satoshi_Corner 0557da36…873d
- 🇮🇹⚡️Bitcoinator🍊💊 057e1a58…e223
- M0053 05972259…bae6
- mlclm 059a5169…fae7
- Hodlorado 05a76d21…538e
- Nolan 05cc4a14…eeb4
- _Checkɱate 🔑⚡🌋☢️🛢️ 05e90eff…2648
- Mandrik 064de249…140c
- Thanius 068d454d…0a29
- JokHodl 0695cb75…e74f
- Fabian 06a84105…6e45
- Tim Bouma 06b7819d…327c
- CWM 06cff5b6…1fef
- futrue 06da2d9e…b6b6
- ndeet 06fca9f0…ad53
- V 072aa32e…f74f
- mark0st ALTER Account 074140b6…7905
- Victoria Kayak 076a6557…7404
- tigs 079d727b…9650
- Bitcoin Socratic Seminar Online 07c80580…7bcb
- 𝙎𝙖𝙡𝙢𝙣.𝙎𝙡𝙮𝙧.𝙃𝙤𝙙𝙡 07ccff08…f680
- Pauline 07d70aa0…d33e
- El Tio 081f3b0c…98a5
- Rick Apollo 08288690…8eba
- Space Hodler 083560ea…577c
- Jingles 0840fa95…4de6
- Decentony⚡ 084b886c…1c95
- 🌬⚡️Agron 08634a74…7405
- twentyone 08b328b5…db99
- Léon 08b83dfa…cdb8
- Ratpoison 08ce1005…1cb7
- Dylan LeClair 09025480…d2df
- Maxim 0904cd87…8c70
- Michael 🇵🇷 09222857…5012
- nobody 09f2e9a7…101a
- Zonoria 0a16059d…65d1
- leon_21 0a380f63…293b
- Mohammed 0a5fb138…48a0
- Ryan Moeller 0a70ab78…d3c6
- Warren Togami 0a722ca2…eb8d
- Relic 0a7585f8…369f
- Holly 💛⚡️✨ 0a8306c4…8f94
- xyzy 0ab05cc7…0f35
- gillian 0abb5897…42fb
- fazen 0ac7d45a…2ec7
- Kyle Torpey 0ae918a0…258c
- 0aec03ed4a54 0aec03ed…555f
- ₿itcoin ₿ombadil 0afb025b…fdc6
- MainStreetChungus 0b39c407…686c
- Luke Broyles 0b8512d0…ecef
- My2Sats 0b862aa6…d202
- Steven Day 0b963191…7ffd
- Ryan 0bba6bd5…359b
- Bitcoin Junior Club 0be0ab80…b58c
- stackingsats 0bedcf4e…9e3e
- Louferlou 0c24e323…d422
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Identifiers
npub: npub1pyp9fqq60689ppds9ec3vghsm7s6s4grfya0y342g2hs3a0y6t0segc0qq
hex: 090254801a7e8e5085b02e711622f0dfa1a85503493af246aa42af08f5e4d2df
no cached metadata event yet
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Suggested read/write relays from this user's latest kind 10002 event.
- No cached NIP-65 relay hints yet.